THEVALUETRADER RESEARCH
FILING DATE OCTOBER 8, 2026
REF PEP Q3 2026
PepsiCo, Inc. Third Quarter 2026 Earnings
Primary source is PepsiCo's Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 dated October 8, 2026, covering the 12 weeks ended September 5, 2026
Headline
Organic revenue growth accelerated to 3.1%, yet PepsiCo cut its full year core EPS outlook because profit is no longer keeping pace with sales.
Executive Takeaway
PepsiCo reported net revenue of $25,274 million, up 5.6% year over year, and organic growth improved to 3.1% from 2.4% in the second quarter. GAAP EPS rose 17% to $2.23, lifted by items the company excludes from its core results. Core EPS, the measure management guides on, rose only 2% to $2.34, and the core operating margin narrowed 35 basis points. According to the company, tariff refunds added 4 points to core operating profit growth, so without them core operating profit would have been slightly lower, calculated from company reported figures. Management raised its fiscal 2026 revenue outlook to about 6% but cut core EPS growth guidance to 2.5% to 3.5%, which implies a flat to slightly lower fourth quarter, calculated from company reported figures. The next quarter will show whether new cost actions can protect earnings as refunds fade and input costs rise.
Video briefing · 2 min 5 sec
The quarter in two minutes
Spoken walkthrough of the key findings in this report · blue reported, gold dashed guidance, hatched calculated
Source · TheValueTrader Research, built from PepsiCo Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 dated October 8, 2026. The report below holds the full detail and the calculations.
1
Quarter at a Glance
GAAP results follow US accounting rules. PepsiCo's core results are non-GAAP and exclude items such as restructuring charges, acquisition related charges or credits, pension settlement effects and commodity mark to market gains or losses.
Organic revenue removes the effects of currency translation and of acquisitions and divestitures, which isolates growth from the existing business.
EPS is net income attributable to PepsiCo per diluted share. Core EPS applies the same math to core net income.
Operating cash flow is cash generated by the business. PepsiCo defines free cash flow as operating cash flow minus capital spending plus proceeds from asset sales.
Constant currency restates results at the prior year's exchange rates. Guidance is management's forecast, not a reported result. Comparisons are year over year unless labeled otherwise.
NET REVENUE$25,274 million, up 5.6% year over year
ORGANIC REVENUE GROWTH3.1%, up from 2.4% in Q2 2026
GAAP OPERATING PROFIT$4,260 million, up 19%
CORE OPERATING PROFIT$4,277 million, up 3%
CORE OPERATING MARGIN16.9%, down 35 bps from 17.3%
GAAP EPS$2.23, up 17%
CORE EPS$2.34, up 2%
OPERATING CASH FLOW, 36 WEEKS$7,950 million vs $5,468 million
FY 2026 CORE EPS GROWTH GUIDANCE+2.5% to +3.5%, lowered
2
What Actually Mattered
Revenue growth broadened and accelerated. Net revenue growth combined 3.1% organic growth, 1.7 points from acquisitions and 0.7 points from currency, according to the filing. Organic growth came from outside North America, led by 9% in both EMEA and Asia Pacific Foods. Both North American segments were roughly flat organically.
Net revenue · comparable 12 week quarters
Net revenue reached $25.27B, the largest of the four comparable quarters
USD millions · Q3 2025, Q1 2026, Q2 2026, Q3 2026 · company reported
+5.6% year over yearOrganic +3.1% year over year+4.5% vs Q2 2026 (calculated)
The latest quarter was the largest of the four comparable periods. Q4 runs 16 weeks, so it is left out rather than shown as a misleading jump.
Source · PepsiCo Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 for Q3 2026 (with Q3 2025 comparative), Q2 2026 and Q1 2026, SEC EDGAR
Core profit growth depended on tariff refunds. Core operating profit rose 3%. The company states that tariff refunds contributed 4 percentage points of that growth, and that productivity savings and pricing were partly offset by operating cost increases and higher advertising and marketing spending.
Core operating profit · change drivers
Without tariff refunds, core operating profit would have slipped slightly
USD millions · change in core operating profit · Q3 2026 vs Q3 2025 · tariff and residual split calculated
The refund benefit was larger than the entire year over year gain. Every other driver taken together subtracted a small amount.
Source · PepsiCo Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1, Q3 2026, core operating profit reconciliation and results discussion, SEC EDGAR
Calculation · total change = $4,277M − $4,137M = $140M. Tariff refunds ≈ 4 pp × $4,137M ≈ $165M. All other ≈ −$25M. Excluding refunds ≈ ($4,277M − $165M) ÷ $4,137M − 1 ≈ −0.6%. Approximate, since the 4 pp figure is rounded.
North America Foods remains the weak spot. PepsiCo Foods North America reported revenue of $6,504 million, essentially flat, with effective net pricing down 1 point and organic volume up 0.5 point. Its core operating profit fell to $1,382 million from $1,570 million, a 12% decline. The company says savory snacks volume and market share improved, but lower pricing is still eroding profit.
3
Profitability and Cash Flow
Operating margin · GAAP vs core
Both margins landed at 16.9%, but only the GAAP margin improved
% of net revenue · Q3 2025 vs Q3 2026 · company reported
GAAP margin +195 bpsCore margin −35 bps
Q3 2025Q3 2026 improvedQ3 2026 declined
The GAAP gain came mostly from acquisition related credits and commodity gains. The core margin, which excludes them, narrowed.
Source · PepsiCo Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1, Q3 2026, summary table and segment reconciliation, SEC EDGAR
To reach core operating profit, the company adds back $192 million of restructuring charges and removes $96 million of acquisition related credits and $79 million of commodity mark to market gains. Net income attributable to PepsiCo was $3,048 million versus $2,603 million. The EPS bridge also adds back $0.10 per share of pension settlement charges.
The margin pressure sits below gross profit. Core gross margin improved to 54.4% from 53.9%, but core selling, general and administrative expenses rose 8.0% to $9,471 million, faster than the 5.6% revenue increase, calculated from company reported figures. Over 36 weeks, operating cash flow rose to $7,950 million from $5,468 million, helped by a much smaller outflow from payables.
4
Business Drivers
Segment profit · core constant currency growth
Every segment grew core profit except North America Foods, down 12%
% change in core constant currency operating profit · Q3 2026 vs Q3 2025 · company reported
North America Foods −12%EMEA +19%Total company +2.5%
International segments grew core profit 9% to 19% at constant currency. North America Foods is the only segment moving backward.
Source · PepsiCo Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1, Q3 2026, summary of operating profit performance by segment, SEC EDGAR
Organic volume added 0.5 point of revenue growth and effective net pricing 3 points, according to the filing. Volume was strongest in Asia Pacific Foods at 11 points. North America Beverages saw volume fall 3 points, offset by pricing, and its 5% reported growth came mainly from $428 million of revenue from 2025 acquisitions.
According to CEO Ramon Laguarta, the company is acting with urgency in North America through more investment in innovation, brand building and channel execution. He also stated that additional structural cost reduction actions will be implemented in the coming months to fund those investments and offset rising input cost inflation. The filing does not quantify them.
5
Balance Sheet
Cash generation vs cash returned · 36 weeks
Dividends alone slightly exceeded free cash flow through 36 weeks
USD millions · 36 weeks to Sep 5, 2026 vs 36 weeks to Sep 6, 2025 · free cash flow calculated per company definition
Free cash flow recovered from a weak 2025 base, but cash returned still ran about $817 million higher. The dotted marker shows where free cash flow ends.
Source · PepsiCo Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1, Q3 2026, condensed consolidated statement of cash flows, SEC EDGAR
The gap was funded partly with borrowing. Short term debt obligations rose to $9,223 million at September 5, 2026 from $6,861 million at December 27, 2025, while long term debt was little changed at $42,658 million, for total debt of $51,881 million, calculated from company reported figures. The liquidity position, cash and cash equivalents plus short term investments, was $11,163 million versus $9,530 million at year end, calculated from company reported figures.
Current liabilities of $34,529 million exceeded current assets of $32,559 million, and receivables rose to $13,623 million from $11,506 million since year end. Diluted weighted average shares declined to 1,367 million from 1,372 million a year earlier.
6
Guidance
PepsiCo does not provide quarterly guidance. All forecasts below refer to fiscal 2026 and are management guidance, stated on a non-GAAP basis.
Fiscal 2026 guidance · previous vs current
Revenue guidance went up while core EPS growth guidance came down
% growth, fiscal 2026 · previous and current ranges as stated in the Q3 2026 release · management guidance
Net revenue ≈ +6%, raisedCore EPS +2.5% to +3.5%, loweredCore cc EPS cut to +1% to +2%
Previous guidance, dot marks stated low endCurrent guidance
The revenue outlook improved with help from currency and acquisitions, but both earnings measures were cut, despite a lower assumed core tax rate of about 21%.
Source · PepsiCo Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1, Q3 2026, fiscal 2026 guidance table showing current and previous outlook, SEC EDGAR. Core cc EPS means core constant currency EPS.
Unchanged items include capital spending below 5% of net revenue, free cash flow conversion of at least 80% of core net income, and cash returns of $8.9 billion. With $6,674 million returned through 36 weeks, about $2,226 million remains for the fourth quarter, calculated from company reported figures. Currency and 2025 acquisitions are now each expected to add about 1.5 points to reported revenue growth.
Implied fourth quarter · core EPS
Full year guidance implies flat to slightly lower core EPS in Q4
USD per diluted share · Q4 2025 actual vs Q4 2026 implied by FY guidance · both 16 week quarters · implied range calculated
Implied Q4 change −2.9% to +0.7% (calculated)36 week core EPS $6.15, +5%FY core EPS +2.5% to +3.5%
Core EPS grew 5% over 36 weeks, so a full year target of 2.5% to 3.5% implies a fourth quarter that is roughly flat or down. The solid band marks the implied range.
Source · PepsiCo Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 for Q3 2026 (36 week core EPS and guidance) and for Q4 2025 (fiscal 2025 core EPS $8.14 and Q4 2025 core EPS $2.26), SEC EDGAR
Calculation · $8.14 × 1.025 ≈ $8.34 and $8.14 × 1.035 ≈ $8.42, less 36 week core EPS of $6.15 ≈ $2.19 to $2.27. Versus $2.26 ≈ −2.9% to +0.7%. Approximate, since guidance percentages are rounded.
7
Bull Case and Bear Case
Bull Case
Organic revenue growth improved to 3.1% from 2.4% in Q2 2026, and the company reports organic volume growth in both global beverages and convenient foods.
International momentum is broad. Core constant currency operating profit rose 19% in EMEA, 12% in Asia Pacific Foods, 10% in LatAm Foods and 9% in the International Beverages Franchise.
Free cash flow over 36 weeks rose about 81%, calculated, while capital spending declined to $2,182 million from $2,499 million.
Bear Case
Core EPS growth guidance was cut to 2.5% to 3.5% from the low end of 5% to 7%, even with a lower assumed core tax rate of about 21%.
Tariff refunds supplied 4 points of core operating profit growth. Excluding them, core operating profit was ≈ 0.6% lower, calculated, and the core margin narrowed 35 bps.
North America Foods core operating profit fell 12%, and cash returned to shareholders exceeded free cash flow by ≈ $817 million while short term debt rose $2,362 million, calculated.
8
Verdict and What to Watch
This quarter showed that PepsiCo's top line is moving in the right direction. Organic growth accelerated, volume grew in both global categories, and most international segments delivered double digit core profit growth. Cash generation also recovered sharply.
It did not show that this growth converts into earnings. Core operating profit grew only because of tariff refunds, costs below gross profit rose faster than sales, and management cut its earnings outlook in the same release that raised its revenue outlook. The announced cost actions are not yet quantified, so their effect cannot be assessed from the filing.
Items to Watch Next Quarter
Q4 2026 core EPS against the implied range of ≈ $2.19 to $2.27, calculated from guidance
Core operating margin versus the prior year once tariff refund support is no longer in the comparison
North America Foods core operating profit after the 12% decline in Q3 2026
The size and timing of the additional structural cost reduction actions, and whether full year free cash flow conversion reaches the 80% target
The Question Now
Can new cost cuts restore core profit growth once tariff refunds fade, or will PepsiCo's revenue keep growing faster than its earnings?
Method
Figures shown as reported come directly from the tables and text of the sources above. Figures marked calculated from company reported figures use only inputs from those sources, mainly free cash flow under the company's own definition, margin and growth ratios, and guidance implied amounts, with the formula shown beneath each chart. Figures marked management guidance are forward looking statements by the company and are not reported results. Core, organic and constant currency figures are non-GAAP measures as defined by PepsiCo.
This content is for educational and informational purposes only and reflects TheValueTrader's independent analysis of PepsiCo, Inc.'s official SEC filings listed above. This is not financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All investing involves risk, and you are responsible for your own decisions. Always do your own research.